Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
